Future Demands
The Scale and Distribution of New Development
As set out in Chapter ‘Opportunities’, we have derived estimates of future numbers of extra trips in order to illustrate that our longer-term strategy and five year implementation programme are consistent with longer term spatial policies at the regional level. These estimates include the likely impact of proposals for new housing and employment opportunities up to 2011. It is anticipated that any additional growth arising from the implementation of the CRDP or Black Country and CSW Studies will begin to have an impact post 2011, so we have initially focused on the short term to 2011.
The Regional Housing Strategy has a short term focus on affordable rural housing and housing standards. Then from 2008, an increased focus on programmes of regeneration and renewal for the regional pathfinders, Black Country and restructuring areas of east Birmingham / North Solihull and the North Black Country / Telford. The impact of this to 2011 is reflected in our forecasts.
Figure 3 ‘Housing Proposals’ and Figure 4 ‘Employment Forecast 2011’ illustrate the forecast changes in housing and employment. It is provisionally estimated that some 242 million extra trips per annum will need to be accommodated by 2011, compared with 2001 as a result of this growth and increasing prosperity.
The CRDP, Black Country and CSW studies and the RSS have time horizons beyond this LTP. Accommodating this additional growth and resultant trips will clearly provide a challenge, particularly if we are not to undermine our competitiveness and damage the environment. As such, there is need to continue to engage with partners in a debate as to what additional measures over and above those contained in this plan are likely to be required in the future both in terms of managing the use of our transport network and providing high quality alternatives. The initial TIF study will be an important contribution to this process.
Residential Development
The proposed new housing sites identified through Unitary Development Plans and existing planning permissions is shown in Figure 3 ‘Housing Proposals’. The pattern illustrates the differences between parts of our Area. There are few larges sites in the Black Country and they are widely dispersed. They are largely (90%) brownfield sites previously used for manufacturing or housing.
The pattern of distribution shows an increasing proportion of new development in the centres of Birmingham, Coventry and Wolverhampton. This development enables people to rely less on the private car. Between the 2001 and 2011, the time period for which the most recent UDPs are available, some 20% of Birmingham's new housing provision is scheduled to come forward in the City Centre. Over the same time period, some 10% of Coventry and Wolverhampton's requirement is also likely to come forward in their respective city centres. In all instances the appetite for city centre living, both on the part of developers and buyers, has increased in recent years and shows little sign of abating. It is creating problems of accessibility to particular services such as doctors and schools,
Planning policies are now framed in order to increase the average density of residential development, with higher densities on radial routes, in centres and at key nodes in order to facilitate public transport use. The allocation of 1,300 dwellings at Bilston Urban Village in Wolverhampton, next to Midland Metro line 1, is a prime example. Figure 5 ‘Population Density 2001’ shows population density as at 2001.
Evidence
We implement planning and transport policies in an integrated and complementary manner. Examples include:
- Average new build housing densities in the Metropolitan Area have increased from 41 to 54 dwellings per hectare between 1987 and 2004. Higher densities in the right locations help improve the viability of public transport
- 2002 and 2004 saw the highest proportion of new retail development (87% and 91% respectively) within or on the edge of town and city centres since we began monitoring in 1987. Current commitments illustrate that this trend is continuing with 89% of future developments planned for within or on the edge of town and city centres. This makes facilities easier to serve by public transport and increases accessibility to a wider range of people
New growth proposals are being developed for Birmingham as part of the City Region Development Plan (CRDP) to complement the Sustainable Communities initiative of the ODPM. Additionally the Black Country study is looking to make the area much more desirable for residential development. Ways of providing for additional residential development in Coventry are also being examined.
Where public transport links are less good, or where there is a need to protect mature residential environments, planning policies are being revised to resist ‘intensification’ schemes that might reduce the local quality of the environment.
One key principal adopted in work on the CRDP is to ensure that best use is made of existing or proposed transport infrastructure when identifying sites for future development to ensure best value for money from transport investment.
Employment Growth and Economic Development
The West Midlands has undergone a radical change in employment structure, with a substantial shift of jobs from manufacturing to the service sector. This has implications for the distribution of job-creating developments and associated trips.
We have made use of employment forecasts from the reputable Oxford and Cambridge models, and these have been incorporated into PRISM model forecasts. The Metropolitan Authorities have jointly forecast the likely distribution of new jobs by 2011, based on known commitments and policy presumptions. This is illustrated in Figure 4 ‘Employment Forecast 2011’. It is apparent that the service sector will continue to be the main source of new jobs, directed towards city and town centres.
In the recent past, the development of the motorway box around Birmingham and Solihull pulled jobs to the edge of the conurbation. This development was based on historic planning decisions made in a different context from that currently found. Examples, all beside the M42, include:
- Birmingham Business Park, just north of Birmingham International Airport - 6,000 jobs growing to 8,000 by 2008/09
- BMW engine manufacturing plant at Hams Hall, Coleshill - 1,000 jobs
- Blythe Valley Business Park, Solihull - 2,000 jobs growing to 7,000 when phase 2 is completed
These locations will continue to accommodate more jobs, but at a slower rate than in the past.
The most significant employment growth outside existing centres has been at the BIA / NEC location (currently between 8,000 and 10,000 full time equivalent jobs). This is now a major employment location with more growth forecast, particularly in the longer term if a second runway proceeds as advocated in the 'Future of Air Travel' White Paper.
Future growth forecasts have significant implications for transport policy and investment, and are reflected in our LTP2 programme. Job growth in centres is more sustainable because these locations can be best accessed by high quality public transport. However, unless more workers use public transport there will be adverse impacts on air quality, congestion and the local economy.
As with housing, the longer term patterns of employment growth and economic development will be determined from the outputs of the CRDP, Black Country and CSW Studies. These in turn will be aligned with the Regional Economic Strategy and locational decisions will seek to make best use of existing or planned transport infrastructure.
We need to recognise that a large proportion of the region's employment is currently linked to the car industry, where there is intense global competition. The demise of MG / Rover, contraction of Jaguar and recent problems at LDV reflect this. The plan seeks to support new employment with a number of targeted new schemes - Chester Road, Longbridge Link, Minworth Link and i54 Wobaston all specifically intended to support new employment generating developments. These are in addition to the Provisionally Approved Darlaston SDA Major Scheme.
This integration of spatial, economic and transport planning at both the regional and Metropolitan Area reflects how we seek to ensure the LTP is consistent with, and supportive of complementary strategies.